Through the last couple of weeks we’ve brought you our position by position player rankings and players to target, but instead of simply saying draft this guy or that guy I wanted to put my targets to the test against MyFantasyLeague.com’s average draft position.
To see how things shake out I came up with the “2014 All Value Team” draft where I am allowed to choose only the players I view as values for 16 rounds to see how many of my targets I could realistically land on one team and see how my rankings would hold up.
Here’s the rules…
- All players will be ranked according to MyFantasyLeague’s ADP (PPR Scoring)
- Players will be sorted in to groups of 12, representing rounds in a standard league
- Only one player can be selected from each round
- At the end of the “draft” I must be able to make a full roster
One quick note on average draft position… use ADP as a guide, but it’s not gospel. It only takes one of your league mates to grab your player early, so if you want a player don’t be afraid to take them just because ADP says you should wait. Also, the ADP I linked to earlier may change as we get closer to the start of the season so I included the current ADP in parenthesis.
With that in mind, let’s get right to it and see what kind of team we can put together for 2014.Round 1: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (ADP 10.72) – Technically I could have just drafted LeSean McCoy here, but I didn’t want to be cheap and Forte at 10 is an insane bargain. To be fair I don’t believe you’ll get Forte this late (I’ve never seen him drop past 5) but if you do he’s a no brainer and has a good chance to be the #1 overall player in fantasy this season.
Round 2: Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (ADP 25.74) – Third in wide receiver fantasy points last season while Aaron Rodgers was on the field, and Rodgers is back healthy in 2014. Jordy is one of the league’s best receivers but comes at a WR2 price.
Round 3: Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (ADP 35.1) – Garcon is a pass catching machine and now has DeSean Jackson on the other side keeping defenses honest. Don’t sleep on the Redskins offense in 2014.
Round 4: Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (ADP 46.72) – Topped 1,000 receiving yards last season and reports have him looking even better in OTA’s. This should be the year he surpasses Larry Fitzgerald as the Cards #1 receiver.
Round 5: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (ADP 67.31) – He wasn’t healthy last season but still posted QB1 numbers. ACL’s respond better two years removed from surgery and his running and passing ability gives him a chance to be the top quarterback in fantasy.
Round 6: Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP 75.73) – No matter what anyone thinks of the Jags offense, the coaching staff wants to give him 300+ touches this season which should be fantasy gold.
Round 8: Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 98.03) – I’ve said it a hundred times over the last couple of weeks but Michael is a top 5 talent and Lynch will break down one of these years.
Round 9: Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers (ADP 104.86) – My pick for this year’s tight end breakout. Worst case he’s a talent who plays in a good offense with a reliable quarterback and could be the Chargers #2 target in the pass game.
Round 10: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 119.56) – I don’t love this pick coming off back to back disappointing years, but I trust Chip Kelly and I want as many pieces of this offense as I can get.
Round 11: Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (ADP 127.54) – Steven Jackson is already dealing with a hamstring injury and Jacquizz Rodgers is nothing special. If he starts he’ll be one of the better running back values.
Round 12: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (ADP 140.09) – Threw for almost 4,000 yards in 2013 and doubled his touchdowns from 2012. Looking for another step forward from Tannehill in his third year and in what should be a very improved Dolphins offense.
Round 13: St. Louis Rams Defense (ADP 154.01) – The Rams front seven is ridiculous and they’re getting better with the addition of Aaron Donald. I’d be stunned if they don’t finish in the top 5 of all fantasy defenses.
Round 14: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots (ADP 163.14) – The rules require I choose a kicker. I’d rather wait until the last round, but Gostkowski has been a top 4 kicker each of the last three years so I jumped up a couple rounds.
Round 15: Cody Latimer, Denver Broncos (ADP 167.62) – Upside: he’s a talented kid who plays with Peyton Manning. Downside: He performs like a 15th round pick and you cut him for someone else.
Round 16: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 180.10) – Had 70+ yards and/or a touchdown in 10 games last season including the playoffs and should have a bigger role in the Seahawks offense in 2014. Worth a roll of the dice in the last round.
The 2014 All Value Team
QB – Robert Griffin, III, Ryan Tannehill
RB – Matt Forte, Toby Gerhart, Christine Michael, Darren Sproles, Devonta Freeman
WR – Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon, Michael Floyd, Terrance Williams, Cody Latimer, Doug Baldwin
TE – Ladarius Green
PK – Stephen Gostkowski
TD – St. Louis Rams
Overall I’m very happy with this team, although I’ll admittedly need one of Christine Michael or Devonta Freeman (or both) to get regular playing time or my RB depth might be a little weak. That said, I believe they both will and really like the combo of Forte and Gerhart as my 1/2 punch and Sproles should be a great PPR asset in the Philly offense.
Without even drafting a Calvin/Julio type, this receiver corps is loaded which should tell you everything you need to know about the depth of this year’s wide receivers. RGIII will need to stay healthy, and Ladarius Green will need to live up to his potential, but I’m confident in Tannehill as a backup and there are always tight ends available on the waiver wire.
Assuming everyone stays healthy, this is a team with a ton of upside, but should be steady enough to coast in to the playoffs even if every player’s worst case scenario comes true.